How to calculate Value Bet?
Value is a purely mathematical way of calculating, how good an odds is. You are only using the odds and the probability of the outcome to evaluate the odds. Factors like league position, form, and injuries are not taken into consideration, it is all about the odds and the probability.

The value calculated for an odds is the expected payout for each dollar (currency used in this example) staked. The value calculated for an odds is the expected payout. That is how much you get in return for each dollar staked. You can calculate the value by using following formula:

Value = Odds * Probability(%) / 100

If the value is above 1.00, then the bet is a ValueBet. This means that your average payout per dollar is greater than 1,00. Each time you bet more than a dollar you will get more than a dollar back statistically. In this way, you should win money in the long run. This assumes that you know the true probalility of an outcome, which nobody does when it comes to sport events. When playing the roulette, you know the probability of red as an outcome, 18/37. But when it comes to sport events, like a football match between England and Brazil, you can only guess on the probability. There are too many factors involved to make a precise objection prediction possible.

Any result of 1.00 or greater means that you have value!!

Example #1
So if you think a certain team playing at home has a 50%chance of winning (usually is Asian Handicap -1/2 ball) , then you will only bet on it if the price available is better than 2.00. 

Because 50% = 0.50(winning chance) * 2.00(yes or no) = 1.00 (or fair value) anything less than this means that over the course of the season you WILL lose money on the bet.

So do not bet on a team just because you think they will win - unless you've also considered their chance of winning - and the price offered  - and decided that mathematically it is value.

Example #2
If we played a simple game - and I let you toss a 6-sided dice - what would the fair price be for any 1 side coming up ?

Each side has 1/6 chance (or 16%) so you can work out fair value by dividing 1 / 0.16 (16%) and getting the number 6.00 (decimal odds) or 5/1 (fractional odds).

So if I offer you a bet at a price of better than 6.00 you should take it  - if it's less than that (say 5.00) you should not take it - even though the price of 5.00 sounds high - it is not value

Our partners























Your ads can be placed here at
$10 per year