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Probability of each out
come for 1X2 odds?
With referring to
the 1X2 odds, we are able to calculate the probability of each out come
for a match result.
It's easy!!!
If the bookmaker
receives the bets in the right proportions, then the payout share (as part
of total stakes for that match) for the customers will be
Payout share =
100% x 1 / Profit indicator (take from previous lesson)
|
Example: |
| Payout share |
= 100% x 1 / 1.181
|
| |
= 84.67% |
From the payout
share, you'll have the profit share for the bookmaker as 100% - payout
share.
Multiply the bookmaker's price for each of the three
outcomes by the pay out share. This removes the part of the price, which is
the bookmaker's profit, and leaves only the pure probability element of
the price.
The probabilities are thus calculated like this:
Probability [1] = ( 1/odds[1] ) x Payout share
Probability [X] = ( 1/odds[X] ) x Payout share
Probability [2] = ( 1/odds[2] ) x Payout share
|
1 |
Brazil |
1.40 |
|
X |
Draw |
3.75 |
|
2 |
England |
5.00 |
|
Example: |
|
Probability [1 - Brazil]: |
0.7142 x
84.67% |
= 60.47%
|
|
Probability [X - Draw]: |
0.2667 x
84.67% |
= 22.58%
|
|
Probability [2 - England]: |
0.2 x 84.67% |
= 16.93%
|
|
Sum |
rounded to 100.00% |
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